10 January 2019
In accordance with Risk estimation of JBA-the global leader in risk management of flood, over the next 20 years the risk of flooding could increase by 25%-30% in the United Kingdom due to climate change. As a result, the specialists of the company have created a model for simulation of such increases the risk of flooding due the climate changes. They argue that it will help (re)insurers to understand the impacts of climate changes in the United Kingdom. The results reflect that the number of events that cause financial losses will increase significantly until the year 2040. In conceiving this JBA model were used government data related to climate changes and applied statistical adjustments related to the diversity of possible UK river, surface water and coastal flood events specific of Great Britain.
The generated data provides an insight into potential changes to flood risk by 2040. Thus, the estimated average annual growth of losses is at 25%-30% for residential properties insured portfolio without the risk of flood exclusion. Gary McInally, Chief Actuary at Pool-British insurance against floods, Flood-Re, said the impact of climate changes on the frequency and severity of flooding increases uncertainty for insurers and reinsurers. With the help of this model insurers have the ability to analyse flood at the level of individual property across the whole of the UK.
In the United Kingdom one in five properties are at risk of flood and economic losses resulting therefrom are at 500 million pounds / year. Even so, insurers must lead a sustained struggle to persuade property owners to adopt flood resilience and preventive measures. According to the Climate Wise Investing of 175 bn. $ in 2016 economic losses related to natural hazards (on witch floods are a major part) only 50 bn. $ was insured. Insurers have announced that the Alliance for flood resilience is being extended for another five years. More than 110 communities have benefited from alliance projects in the past five years and it’s expected that the projects in the next 5 years to have an even bigger impact.
Source: The Journal (CII) - https://issuu.com/redactive/docs/cii_augsept_2018
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